Solar Flux Boost for Emergency Responders: Short Solar Forecast 10-19-2017
This brief forecast is to update emergency responders and amateur radio operators helping hurricane victims on the state of radio propagation for this week. (I will include a more extensive forecast along with aurora photographs in my upcoming video later this week.) Although the Sun is spotless now, an old active region will be rotating into Earth view this week providing a much needed boost to the solar flux levels. This region recently launched a solar storm on the backside of the Sun, nearly in view of Earth and the extra solar flux from this increased activity is already improving propagation conditions. Expect solar flux to bump up from into marginal levels over the next three days as this region rotates into view. Improved propagation on Earth's dayside should last over the next two weeks as long as this region remains visible in Earth view.
For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.
Solar Imaging and Analysis:
STEREO-EUVI + SDO-AIA 360° Heliographic Maps: http://tcrb.nrl.navy.mil/~iuu/maps360/284/movietool.html
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
NOAA Sunspot Classifications: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/
GONG Magnetic Maps: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html
Wang-Sheeley-Arge Solar Wind Prediction Model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ws/
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSy...
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/mag_3d.html
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
POES Auroral Global Maps: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wingkp/index.html
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://terra2.spacenvironment.net/~raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html
HAARP Data Meters: http://www.haarp.alaska.edu/haarp/
Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.
Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.